Today’s entry: Your update on Florida’s early voting got me to thinking about turnout. What party does the best with low turnout and does that change with higher turnout? For all of the talk of voter suppression this and that every cycle I’ve never heard this discussed.
Bottom Line: It’s a good question. I’ve frequently discussed the variance of voter turnout based on election type in Florida, ranging from an average of 12% for local-only elections to 75% for Presidential elections but I’ve not specifically discussed the difference in political outcomes based on turnout. The best way to gauge the dynamic is to look at Florida’s statewide races in general election cycles. Naturally, midterms feature less turnout than Presidential Election cycles so all of the lowest turnout cycles feature midterms with the highest coming in Presidential Elections. Florida began tracking voter turnout in the 1950s. Since then there are eight cycles with 75% or greater turnout and six with lower than 50% turnout.
Party winners in cycles with under 50% turnout:
- 1954: Democrats
- 1958: Democrats
- 1962: Democrats
- 1998: Mixed
- 2006: Republicans
- 2010: Republicans
Party winners in cycles greater than 75% turnout:
- 1960: Republicans
- 1968: Republicans
- 1976: Democrats
- 1980: Republicans
- 1984: Republicans
- 1992: Republicans
- 2008: Democrats
- 2016: Republicans
There’s a pretty clear long-term trend in Florida. Democrats are 3-2-1 in election cycles with the lowest voter turnout. Meanwhile, Republicans are 6-2 in cycles with the highest turnout. In fact, two elections punctuate the partisan difference in Florida’s highest turnout elections due to how Florida voted compared to the rest of the country. Florida’s Democrats have generally fared best in elections with the lowest voter turnout with Republicans faring best in those with the highest turnout. If this trend holds 75% is the magic number. If turnout is 75% or higher in November, Trump likely wins Florida. If it’s below that level Biden would likely carry our state.
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